A model is developed incorporating trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Fully anticipated, expansionary credit and fiscal policies are associated with output and price...

This paper examines the role of the labor market in the transmission process of adjustment policies in developing countries. It begins by reviewing the recent evidence regarding the functioning of these markets. It then studies the implications of wage inertia, nominal contracts, labor market...

Exchange rate reforms in developing countries have often aimed at floating the exchange rate in an attempt to unify the official and parallel markets for foreign exchange. This paper examines the short-term dynamics associated with such reforms. The analysis shows that the behavior of the...

Recent techniques designed to draw inferences about the credibility of changes in macroeconomic policy regimes are examined. An alternative two-step approach, based on the decomposition between permanent and transitory components of a "credibility variable," is proposed. The methodology is then...

This paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic...

Recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance of payments crises are reviewed. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, including alternative...