This paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and...

This paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and...

Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes, and...

The structural reforms under way in Eastern Europe have revealed the weakness of the banking sector there; macroeconomic stability and other reforms are thereby threatened. A model is developed that clarifies the role of banking in an emerging market economy and the danger that the disturbances...

It is shown that the inefficiencies created by the soft budget constraint enjoyed by enterprises in Eastern Europe and elsewhere will continue so long as governments are unable credibly to threaten not to bail out loss makers. The institution of a suitable social safety net can strengthen...

A central bank must decide on the frequency with which it will conduct open market operations and the variability in short-term money market that it will allow. The paper shows how the optimal operating procedure balances the value of attaining an immediate target and broadcasting the central...