This paper analyzes the decision by a government facing electoral uncertainty to implement structural reforms in the presence of fiscal restraints similar to the Stability and Growth Pact. To the extent that the reform package entails budgetary costs, the model shows that a fiscal pact erodes...

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy...

A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy...

The issue of whether the money supply can serve as a nominal anchor for the domestic price level under real exchange rate targeting is examined. When capital controls are perfect, so that there is complete separation between official and unofficial foreign exchange markets, the domestic...

This paper presents a model of an economy that uses nominal exchange rate policy to keep the real exchange rate constant at a certain target level, under an assumption of imperfect asset substitutability. The paper discusses the determinants of inflation under such a policy and examines the...

Credibility and financing problems are important reasons why countries may seek to involve external institutions in the design and implementation of stabilization programs. In particular, governments may rely on external institutions to "enforce" programs that would otherwise lack credibility....

This paper analyzes the initial economic conditions before IMF financial arrangements are adopted. Evidence from 104 IMF arrangements in 74 developing countries during 1973-91 indicates that there are important differences between the characteristics of countries about to undergo a program and...

To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the six months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is highly significant statistically, holds regardless of whether the devaluation takes place in...

Using a simple model of international lending, we show that as long as the IMF lends at an actuarially fair interest rate and debtor governments maximize the welfare of their taxpayers, any changes in policy effort, capital flows, or borrowing costs in response to IMF crisis lending are...