The relationship between temporary terms of trade shocks and household saving in developing countries is examined. It is first shown that, from a theoretical standpoint, this relationship is ambiguous: private saving may rise or fall in response to a transitory terms of trade shock, depending on...

A structural import demand equation is derived and estimated for a large number of countries, using recent time-series techniques that address the problem of nonstationarity. The average price elasticity is close to zero in the short run but is slightly higher than one in the long run. A similar...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

The relationship between real interest rates, saving, and growth is a central issue in development economics. Using macroeconomic data for a cross-section of countries, we estimate a model in which the intertemporal elasticity of substitution varies with the level of wealth. The estimated...

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly...

This paper uses a multiregion overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility to simulate the general equilibrium effects of projected population trends on international capital flows. It finds that retirement saving by aging baby boomers will raise the supply of capital...

This paper uses a multiregion overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility to simulate the general equilibrium effects of projected population trends on international capital flows. It finds that retirement saving by aging baby boomers will raise the supply of capital...

Evans (1991) has demonstrated that Blanchard's (1985) finite-horizon model obeys approximate Ricardian equivalence. This paper shows that this result is determined largely by an unrealistic assumption that labor income grows monotonically over the consumer's entire lifetime. With more realistic...

In countries like the former Soviet Union, where wealth is mainly stored in monetary assets, the behavior of the money-income ratio is a poor indicator of the growth of undesired monetary balances (monetary overhang). In those countries a monetary overhang is primarily a wealth overhang, which...

The household saving ratio in France underwent sharp changes over the past two decades, falling dramatically in the early 1980s before rising more recently. This paper emphasizes two factors in the evolution of private saving in France. The first relates to perceptions of household income growth...