This paper analyzes the behavior of closed-end country fund discounts, including evidence from the Mexican and East Asian crises. It finds that the ratio of fund prices to their fundamental value increases dramatically during a crisis, an anomaly that we denote the "closed-end country fund...

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their...

"Program numbers" from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

The revised Bank of Korea (BOK) Act states that the primary goal of monetary policy is price stability and recently monetary policy has moved toward an inflation targeting framework. This study explores some of the practical aspects that need to be considered for this move. In particular, issues...

This paper presents evidence, using data from Consensus Forecasts, that there is an "attraction" to conform to the mean forecasts; in other words, views expressed by other forecasters in the previous period influence individuals' current forecast. The paper then discusses--and provides further...

"Program numbers" from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

The revised Bank of Korea (BOK) Act states that the primary goal of monetary policy is price stability and recently monetary policy has moved toward an inflation targeting framework. This study explores some of the practical aspects that need to be considered for this move. In particular, issues...

This paper presents evidence, using data from Consensus Forecasts, that there is an "attraction" to conform to the mean forecasts; in other words, views expressed by other forecasters in the previous period influence individuals' current forecast. The paper then discusses--and provides further...

This paper analyzes the behavior of closed-end country fund discounts, including evidence from the Mexican and East Asian crises. It finds that the ratio of fund prices to their fundamental value increases dramatically during a crisis, an anomaly that we denote the "closed-end country fund...

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their...