The paper finds strong evidence that real currency demand in Mexico remained stable throughout and after the financial crisis in Mexico. Cointegration analysis using the Johansen-Juselius technique indicates a strong cointegration relationship between real currency balances, real private...

The paper finds strong evidence that real currency demand in Mexico remained stable throughout and after the financial crisis in Mexico. Cointegration analysis using the Johansen-Juselius technique indicates a strong cointegration relationship between real currency balances, real private...

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...

The efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices are investigated. The accuracy of forecasts using futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models and judgmental forecasts....

This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and bonds. It is emphasized that the substitutability between nominal assets and...

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity across different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates because the Ricardian...

This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity across different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates because the Ricardian...

There has been growing interest in the use of financial spreads as advance indicators of real activity and inflation. Empirical evidence is marshalled on a range of spreads when these are used in vector autoregressive models of the U.K. and German economies. It is found that they do provide...

Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and...