The paper presents evidence from the past three years which indicates that the exchange rate between the private ECU and the official ECU Basket can deviate substantially from par. The value of the private ECU is driven by expectations that a future European Central Bank will enforce par...

Daily French and German interest rate changes since the Basle-Nyborg agreement of September 1987 are examined empirically. In particular, it is asked whether the shock associated with German unification altered the degree of leadership of German monetary policy in the exchange rate mechanism...

In this paper, we present stylized facts about exchange rate fluctuations and intervention behavior in the Exchange Rate Mechanism I (ERM I), in particular in light of the recent literature on multilateral target zone models. We estimate bilateral exchange rate distributions of the maximum spot...

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This paper considers the effect of exchange and capital controls on trade in the gravity-equation framework, in which bilateral exports depend on the distance between countries, the countries' size and wealth, tariff barriers, and exchange and capital controls. The extent of exchange and capital...

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the...

There is surprisingly little empirical research on whether Balassa-Samuelson effects can explain the long-run behavior of real exchange rates in developing countries. This paper presents new evidence on this issue based on a panel-data sample of 16 developing countries. The paper finds that the...

Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The...

We assess the progress made by the profession in understanding real exchange rate behavior through a selective and critical, but nonetheless expository, review of the literature. Our reading of the literature leads us to the main conclusions that purchasing power parity might be viewed as a...

In addition to transferring about 16 percent of GDP from exporters to importers, Uzbekistanís quasi-fiscal multiple exchange rate regime generates identifiable welfare losses of 2ñ8 percent of GDP on import markets and up to 15 percent on export markets. These excess burdens have increased...