This paper uses binary classification trees (BCTs) to predict capital account crises. BCTs successively compare candidate variables and thresholds to split the data into two subsamples, allowing for a large number of indicators to be considered and complex interactions to emerge in a way that...

Latin American countries have experienced cycles of expansionary policies, currency appreciation, and crises. The popularity of appreciations, through their effect on consumers' purchasing power, has been an accepted assumption in the literature despite a dearth of studies on the distributional...

This paper examines the role of structural factors--governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure--as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows...

This paper examines the role of structural factors - governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure - as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

The design and desirability of rules for the international coordination of macroeconomic policies in a world characterized by model uncertainty are considered. The presence of model uncertainty provides additional incentive to coordinate policies, provided that policymakers recognize that they...