This paper explores and quantifies several aspects of the performance of Africa's currency unions. It benchmarks Africa's experience with that of the world using an augmented version of the gravity model and applying a comprehensive set of robustness checks. The empirical findings suggest that...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

The problem of allocation of investment is an important issue for a debtor country facing a ceiling on the amount of foreign debt it can accumulate. The optimal solution is for the debtor country to create a more open economy by favoring investment in the export sector over investment in the...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources from the General Resources Account in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches—the time-series behavior of credit outstanding and a...

While few doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is less agreement about the effects of moderate inflation. Using panel regressions and allowing for a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation...

This paper examines the role of structural factors--governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure--as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows...

This paper examines the role of structural factors - governance and rule of law, corporate sector governance (creditor rights and shareholder rights), corporate financing structure - as well as macroeconomic variables in currency crises. Using a technique known as a binary recursive tree allows...

The design and desirability of rules for the international coordination of macroeconomic policies in a world characterized by model uncertainty are considered. The presence of model uncertainty provides additional incentive to coordinate policies, provided that policymakers recognize that they...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...