Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among...

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among...

Several proposals for a wholesale privatization of public enterprises in Eastern Europe are discussed. These proposals include the distribution of "vouchers" to private citizens, as well as the use of mutual funds, privatization companies, and other forms of financial intermediaries. The paper...

The cost of interest payment guarantees is difficult to evaluate because guarantees are a contingent obligation that become effective only if a certain condition is met (that is, the debtor fails to make a certain payment). In this paper a technique to value interest payment guarantees on...

The problem of allocation of investment is an important issue for a debtor country facing a ceiling on the amount of foreign debt it can accumulate. The optimal solution is for the debtor country to create a more open economy by favoring investment in the export sector over investment in the...

The declines in economic activity experienced by Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic, and Romania in the period since market-oriented reforms were initiated are analyzed. After reviewing developments in these three countries, the paper empirically investigates two questions that are...

The "traditional structural approach" to determining real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in these prices during the...

This paper empirically evaluates four types of costs that may result from an international sovereign default: reputational costs, international trade exclusion costs, costs to the domestic economy through the financial system, and political costs to the authorities. It finds that the economic...