Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This paper considers the effect of exchange and capital controls on trade in the gravity-equation framework, in which bilateral exports depend on the distance between countries, the countries' size and wealth, tariff barriers, and exchange and capital controls. The extent of exchange and capital...

This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Through use of a gravity model and panel data from western Europe, exchange rate uncertainty is found to have a negative effect on international trade. The results seem to be robust with respect to the...

There is surprisingly little empirical research on whether Balassa-Samuelson effects can explain the long-run behavior of real exchange rates in developing countries. This paper presents new evidence on this issue based on a panel-data sample of 16 developing countries. The paper finds that the...

Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The...

We assess the progress made by the profession in understanding real exchange rate behavior through a selective and critical, but nonetheless expository, review of the literature. Our reading of the literature leads us to the main conclusions that purchasing power parity might be viewed as a...

In addition to transferring about 16 percent of GDP from exporters to importers, Uzbekistanís quasi-fiscal multiple exchange rate regime generates identifiable welfare losses of 2ñ8 percent of GDP on import markets and up to 15 percent on export markets. These excess burdens have increased...

This paper investigates the effects of fixed versus flexible exchange rates on firms' location choices and on countries' specialization patterns. In a two-country, twodifferentiated-goods monetary model, uncertainty arises after wages are set and prices are optimally chosen. The paper shows that...