This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this...

The Fed has taken several steps towards strengthening its monetary framework over the past several years. Those steps have supported the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy through forward guidance despite being constrained by having policy rates at zero. We show that an optimal control...

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy...

This paper examines the movement of the Canadian dollar over the 1971-76 period. Although Canadian prices increased substantially more than U.S. prices over this period, there was no tendency for a systematic depreciation of the Canadian dollar. To explain this phenomenon requires the...

In the mid-1970s the Bank of Canada, along with a number of other central banks, began to set explicit targets for monetary growth and to emphasize the long-run role of monetary aggregates in controlling the rapid upward trend of prices. There are three distinct ways of viewing and interpreting...

This paper focuses on the implications of using the monetary base or bank reserves as an instrument to control a monetary aggregate. Following analysis of a series of theoretical models of increasing complexity, it is concluded that in a system with either institutional or structural lags base...

In this study, the authors examine three aspects of the Canadian experience with flexible exchange rates in the 1970s: the movements in the Canadian dollar-U.S. dollar exchange rate, the sharp growth of external borrowings by Canadians in the 1974-76 period, and the real effects of relative...

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has...

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model's...

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates...