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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options …) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944
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In search of the Euro area fiscal stance
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529025
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Identifying the shocks behind business cycle asynchrony in Euroland
Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
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The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation : Evidence from Europe
Bluedorn, John C.; Caselli, Francesca; Hansen, Niels-Jakob - 2022
Using individual-level data for 30 European countries between 1983 and 2019, we document the extent and earning consequences of workers’ reallocation across occupations and industries and how these outcomes vary with individual-level characteristics, namely (i) education, (ii) gender, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030478
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Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability
Elekdag, Selim - 2020
This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843521
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A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers : The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
Andrle, Michal - 2015
. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland's output, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021783
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The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier
di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni - 2021
We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowthdifferential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negativematters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243042
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Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations : Evidence from the Euro Area
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna; Zdarek, Vaclav - 2022
This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts … overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks … initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238518
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Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics : Why so Low for so Long?
Abdih, Yasser - 2018
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
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The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound
Amendola, Adalgiso - 2019
We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866218