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In search of the Euro area fiscal stance
Albonico, Alice; Tirelli, Patrizio; Paccagnini, Alessia - 2016
This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate EMU business cycle. Previous studies, based on the assumption of non-separability between public and private consumption, obtain a large public consumption multiplier, a small fraction of non-Ricardian households and,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011529025
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Identifying the shocks behind business cycle asynchrony in Euroland
Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012
This paper investigates which shocks drive asynchrony of business cycles in the euro area. Thereby, it unites two strands of literature, those on common features and on structural VAR analysis. In particular, we show that the presence of a common cycle implies collinearity of structural impulse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489953
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The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation : Evidence from Europe
Bluedorn, John C.; Caselli, Francesca; Hansen, Niels-Jakob - 2022
Using individual-level data for 30 European countries between 1983 and 2019, we document the extent and earning consequences of workers’ reallocation across occupations and industries and how these outcomes vary with individual-level characteristics, namely (i) education, (ii) gender, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030478
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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?
Chen, Sally; Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna - 2022
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305628
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Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability
Elekdag, Selim - 2020
This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843521
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A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers : The Case of Poland and the Euro Area
Andrle, Michal - 2015
. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland's output, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021783
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Biases in Survey Inflation Expectations : Evidence from the Euro Area
Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna; Zdarek, Vaclav - 2022
This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts … overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks … initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third, disagreement about future inflation increases in response to news when the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238518
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The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier
Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni - 2021
We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowthdifferential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negativematters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243042
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Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics : Why so Low for so Long?
Abdih, Yasser - 2018
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
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Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries
Karpowicz, Izabela - 2020
Advanced economies have been witnessing a pronounced slowdown of productivity growth since the global financial crisis that is accompanied in recent years by a withdrawal from trade integration processes. We study the determinants of productivity slowdown over the past two decades in four...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840610