Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system...

We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance...

The unprecedented expansion of sovereign balance sheets since the global financial crisis has given a new meaning to the term sovereign risk. Developments in Europe since early 2010 presented new challenges for the functioning of private banks in an environment of heightened sovereign risk. This...

In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights...

Using data on commercial banks in the United States and Europe, this paper analyses the impact of the new Basel III capital and liquidity regulation on bank-lending following the 2008 financial crisis. We find that U.S. banks reinforce their risk absorption capacities when expanding their credit...

Europe's high pre-existing level of financial development can partly account for the relatively smaller reach of fintech payment and lending activities compared to some other regions. But fintech activity is growing rapidly. Digital payment schemes are expanding within countries, although...

This study assesses the overall impact on credit of the financial regulatory reforms in Europe, Japan, and the United States. Long-term cost estimates are provided for Basel III capital and liquidity requirements, derivatives reforms, and higher taxes and fees. Overall, average lending rates in...

The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all...

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern...