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is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085134
nonparametric distribution of errors in official GDP percapita data. We then construct more precise and robust measures of GDP per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869295
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082217
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057314