The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor...

The global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding macro-financial developments and spillovers in an increasingly interconnected and intricate system. At the IMF, staff is focusing on the linkages between the real economy and the financial sector, as well as the...