Showing 1 - 10 of 31
important source of consumption risk as two thirds of households are involved in some level of agricultural production. For … South Africa, we focus on labor market risk proxied by transitions from formal employment to informal work or unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527
This paper discusses the evolution of the household debt in Australia and finds that while higher-income and higher-wealth households tend to have higher debt, lower-income households may become more vulnerable to rising debt service over time. Then, the paper analyzes the impact of a monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869296
The paper introduces 'system priors', their use in Bayesian analysis of econometric time series, and provides a simple and illustrative application. System priors were devised by Andrle and Benes (2013) as a tool to incorporate prior knowledge into an economic model. Unlike priors about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966549
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913892
This paper presents a multivariate (MV) methodology for obtaining measures of excess demand that can facilitate discussion of monetary policy issues and improve policy decisions. Using data for the Czech Republic, a growing economy undergoing major structural change, it shows how the use of more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783217
The gap between potential and actual output — the output gap — is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019031
Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079881
The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956494
Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027622
We examine the role of household financial access in determining the extent of risk sharing in Nigeria using household … savings rather than borrowing. Regional variation in risk sharing tends to be significant, suggesting that financial inclusion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015612