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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options …) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944
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Inflation Dynamics in Advanced Economies : A Decomposition into Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Factors
Lian, Weicheng; Freitag, Andreas - 2022
Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose … core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i … inflation and unemployment rate. The approach has potential to help understand forces shaping price pressures during the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082956
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Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean
Kandil, Magda - 2014
inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the … that are exacerbated by pro-cyclical policy stance, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053047
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Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle
Lambert, Frederic; Pescatori, Andreas; Toscani, Frederik - 2021
Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in a cross-section of countries, and that the Okun's coefficient falls with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252022
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Housing Price, Credit, and Output Cycles : How Domestic and External Shocks Impact Lithuania's Credit
Ioannou, Iacovos - 2018
Lithuania's current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912503
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The Distributional Impacts of Worker Reallocation : Evidence from Europe
Bluedorn, John C.; Caselli, Francesca; Hansen, Niels-Jakob - 2022
Using individual-level data for 30 European countries between 1983 and 2019, we document the extent and earning consequences of workers’ reallocation across occupations and industries and how these outcomes vary with individual-level characteristics, namely (i) education, (ii) gender, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014030478
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Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises?
Chen, Sally; Svirydzenka, Katsiaryna - 2022
Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013305628
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An Extended Quarterly Projection Model : Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines
Karam, Philippe D.; Pranovich, Mikhail; Vlček, Jan - 2022
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306733
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Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles
Sever, Can - 2023
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353733
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Breaking the Bank? A Probabilistic Assessment of Euro Area Bank Profitability
Elekdag, Selim - 2020
This paper explores the determinants of profitability across large euro area banks using a novel approach based on conditional profitability distributions. Real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are shown to be the most reliable determinants of bank profitability. However, the estimated conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843521