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Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications

Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2016

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002151

The Slowdown in Global Trade : A Symptom of a Weak Recovery

Aslam, Aqib - 2018

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928627

Quality and the Great Trade Collapse

Chen, Natalie - 2016

We explore whether the global financial crisis has had heterogeneous effects on traded goods differentiated by quality. Combining a dataset of Argentinean firm-level destination-specific wine exports with quality ratings, we show that higher quality exports grew faster before the crisis, but...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996075

A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output

Blagrave, Patrick - 2015

Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023270

A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

Ball, Laurence - 2015

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025502

Great Recession and Fiscal Squeeze at U.S. Subnational Government Level

Jonas, Jiri - 2012

The paper discusses the fiscal impact of the Great Recession of 2007-08 on state and local governments in the United States. It documents the sharp decline in tax revenue and discusses how states responded to close the budget gaps in order to obey the balanced budget provisions. It highligts the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098614

Equity Returns in the Banking Sector in the Wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - 2012

This study finds that equity returns in the banking sector in the wake of the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis have been driven mainly by weak growth prospects and heightened sovereign risk and to a lesser extent, by deteriorating funding conditions and investor sentiment....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098630

Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence

Vitek, Francis - 2018

This paper investigates the sources of macrofinancial fluctuations and turbulence within the framework of an approximate linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, augmented with structural shocks exhibiting potentially asymmetric generalized autoregressive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906882

Household Leverage and the Recession

Jones, Callum - 2018

We evaluate and partially challenge the 'household leverage' view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910353

What Prevents a Real Business Cycle Model from Matching the U.S. Data? Decomposing the Labor Wedge

Plotnikov, Dmitry - 2017

I carry out a business cycle accounting exercise (Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan, 2007) on theU.S. data measured in wage units (Farmer (2010)) for the entire postwar period. In contrast toa conventional approach, this approach preserves common medium-term business cyclefluctuations in GDP, its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012945679