Showing 1 - 10 of 22
We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal … lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098577
quantitatively analyze inflation dynamics in SSA using a Global VAR model, which incorporates trade and financial linkages among …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015595
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currenciespegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers havefocused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses onthe impact on supply. We show that risk premium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889134
We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve's May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046304
This paper relates the inflationary impact of commodity price shocks across countries to a broad range of structural characteristics and policy frameworks over the period 2001-2010, using several approaches. The analysis suggests that economies with higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098581
Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098628
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049145
The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053047
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250081
-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified as that which causes measured expectations to diverge from rationality. Using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289451