Showing 1 - 10 of 55
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign … the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028690
This paper leverages the IMF's Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years. Various initiatives have been undertaken by central banks both in advanced and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057310
This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of … industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output … volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212317
This paper examines the impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility using a dynamic panel analysis for 110 … advanced and developing countries. We find that financial depth plays a significant role in dampening the volatility of output … economies, financial depth amplifies consumption and investment volatility. We also find strong evidence that deeper financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086316
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086323
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088734
This paper presents a new version of MAPMOD (Mark II) to study the effectiveness of macroprudential regulations. We extend the original model by explicitly modeling the housing market. We show how household demand for housing, house prices, and bank mortgages are intertwined in what we call a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977752
Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place along side synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate co-movement is to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977862
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928622
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036333