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An Analysis of OPEC's Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Behar, Alberto - 2016
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts … explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of … US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977842
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OPEC and the Oil Market
Nazer, Yousef; Pescatori, Andreas - 2022
This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to … identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical … around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a proxy for credibility, has strongly fluctuated over time. An ordered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244439
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Oil Exporters’ Dilemma : How Much to Save and How Much to Invest
Hasanov, Fuad - 2012
Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a precautionary saving and investment model under uncertainty. Consistent with data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111412
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External Adjustment in Oil Exporters : The Role of Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate
Behar, Alberto - 2016
After the decline in oil prices, many oil exporters face the need to improve their externalbalances. Special characteristics of oil exporters make the exchange rate an ineffectiveinstrument for this purpose and give fiscal policy a sizeable role. These conclusions aresupported by regression...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977864
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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries : Does the Size of Government Matter?
Emamgholi, Amir S. Sadeghi - 2018
This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditurerespond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggestthat if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) islarger, non-oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929923
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Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil-Exporting Countries
Snudden, Stephen - 2013
Structural budget-balance rules with countercyclical elements appear well suited to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility of oil-exporting countries and have been used successfully by other commodity exporters. Using a global DSGE model, the efficient design of such rules is found to depend on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071925
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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil
Rebei, Nooman - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836533
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Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil
Aleksandrov, Nikolay A. - 2013
-2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted … strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086007
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Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries
Mirzoev, Tokhir - 2019
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First,we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistentwith either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence ofuncertainty. Policies to achieve these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868470
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The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar - 2016
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998782