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What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

Anand, Rahul - 2015

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011206

Estimating VAT Pass Through

Benedek, Dora - 2015

This paper estimates the pass through of VAT changes to consumer prices, using a uniquedataset providing disaggregated, monthly data on prices and VAT rates for 17 Eurozonecountries over 1999-2013. Pass through is much less than full on average, and differsmarkedly across types of VAT change....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011191

A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation

Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira da - 2015

Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027659

Post-Laspeyres : The Case for a New Formula for Compiling Consumer Price Indexes

Armknecht, Paul A. - 2012

Consumer price indexes (CPIs) are compiled at the higher (weighted) level using Laspeyres-type arithmetic averages. This paper questions the suitability of such formulas and considers two counterpart alternatives that use geometric averaging, the Geometric Young and the (price-updated) Geometric...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101518

World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices : Evidence from the United Kingdom

García Herrero, Alicia; Thornton, John - 2021

This paper investigates, using cointegration and Granger-causality techniques, whether a stable long-run co-movement exists between world commodity prices and U.K. retail prices and whether short-run changes in commodity prices convey information about future movements in U.K. retail prices. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217123

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Kpodar, Roland Kangni; Liu, Boya - 2022

different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306724

COVID-19 and the CPI : Is Inflation Underestimated?

Reinsdorf, Marshall B. - 2021

COVID-19 changed consumers' spending patterns, making the CPI weights suddenly obsolete. In most regions, adjusting the CPI weights to account for the changes in spending patterns increases the estimate of inflation over the early months of the pandemic. Under-weighting of rising food prices and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252057

Weighted Median Inflation Around the World : A Measure of Core Inflation

Ball, Laurence M.; Carvalho, Carlos Viana de; Evans, … - 2023

The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggretion of the CPI over 1990-2021, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256872

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk : Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Bellon, Matthieu - 2020

Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption … vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g. by education, ethnic group, and economic activity) and we quantify the impact … mechanisms, including financial access and transfers. Country characteristics crucially determine which household-level shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527

Household Debt and House Prices-at-Risk : A Tale of Two Countries

Alter, Adrian - 2020

. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price …-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836538