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unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002151
This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using … cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the … econometric results indicate that government spending, money supply growth, global inflation, and exchange rate pass-through play …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013082860
We estimate the average fiscal multiplier, allowing multipliers to be heterogeneous across countries or over time and correlated with the size of government spending. We demonstrate that this form of nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity is empirically relevant and address it by estimating a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950437
unemployment. However, in many middle-income countries, a relatively large government coexists with persistently high unemployment … to long-run. Our findings do not provide any evidence that public employment reduces unemployment rate. The analysis in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036636
This paper revisits options for fiscal anchors in Australia against the backdrop of a medium-term budget balance anchor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929922
In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of thepost-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate astylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during“normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061162
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102206
The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064363
transmission mechanisms, accounting for business cycle fluctuations, and generating relatively accurate forecasts of inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956470
The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956478