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The Slowdown in Global Trade : A Symptom of a Weak Recovery
Aslam, Aqib - 2018
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928627
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6 1/2 Decades of Global Trade and Income : 'New Normal' or 'Back to Normal' after GTC and GFC?
Rumbaugh, Thomas - 2016
Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 6 1/2 decades and its relationship with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and longer term context. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977826
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The Global Trade Slowdown : Cyclical or Structural?
Constantinescu, Cristina - 2015
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027665
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Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity
Behar, Alberto - 2013
, despite the larger trade elasticities implied by firm heterogeneity. As a consequence, the world-wide trade response, though …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085999
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A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets
Krichene, Noureddine - 2021
A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318085
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The Effect of Tariffs in Global Value Chains
Eugster, Johannes L.; Jaumotte, Florence; MacDonald, Margaux - 2022
This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295005
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The Intensive Margin in Trade
Fernandes, Ana M. - 2019
. Using the World Bank's Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) featuring firm-level exports from 50 countries, we find that around …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895125
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Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets - An Empirical Investigation
Fayad, Ghada - 2014
Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013045940
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China's Imports Slowdown : Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks
Kireyev, Alexei - 2016
The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China's imports as a result of China's rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995279
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A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)
Barhoumi, Karim - 2015
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric … approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in … tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027639