Showing 1 - 10 of 133
Does the South African rand's relatively large volatility affect inflation? To shed some light on this question, a … standard estimation technique of exchange rate pass-through to inflation is extended to incorporate exchange rate volatility …. Estimated results suggest that higher exchange rate volatility tends to increase core inflation but to a relatively limited …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843500
Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or 'implicit … anchor', towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses … and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912489
The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098612
This paper applies a state-space approach to estimate the implicit inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank … (SARB) since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. The paper's findings are two. First, although the … official inflation target range is 3.6 percent, in practice, the SARB seems to have aimed for the upper segment of the band (41 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098627
We examine the relationship between South African Rand and gold price volatility using monthly data for the period 1980-2010. Our main findings is that prior to capital account liberalization the causality runs from South African Rand to gold price volatility but the causality runs the other way...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098635
The paper looks at the dynamics of employment in South Africa and examines the factors that contributed to the job-shedding observed during the recent financial crisis. The paper finds that the rapid growth of the real wage, which outpaced the labor productivity growth in most sectors, played an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107076
Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086315
Following the onset of the global economic crisis in 2008, SACU member countries have witnessed a significant growth slowdown, and a deterioration of their fiscal balances. This paper (i) assesses options for the design of the needed fiscal consolidation, and (ii) discussed medium-term fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066167
Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836527
This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in the rand-U.S. dollar exchange rate in 2001 and 2002 using an empirical exchange rate model which identifies aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and nominal disturbances as possible sources for exchange rate fluctuations. According to our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783032