.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U ….S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume … of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel …

accompanied by an increase in the shares of the pound sterling, yen and euro, other long-standing reserve currencies and units …

determine the extent to which nationalcurrencies across the world belong to a reserve currency bloc. We then use these estimates … of the U.S. dollar andthe euro - to a tri-polar one that includes the renminbi. The dollar bloc is estimated tocontinue … to dominate, having the largest share in global GDP (40 percent), followed by therenminbi (30 percent) and the euro blocs …