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This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927465
develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013013818
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855
throughout the world. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating whether this impact differs across regions …, income levels, and types of economy. Using a rich dataset for 150 countries for the period 1975–2005, dynamic panel …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080451
Finance and growth emerged as a distinct field of economics during the last three decades as economists integrated the fields of finance and economic growth and then explored the ramifications of the functioning of financial systems on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty. In this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306793
Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society … the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a … higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318074
large panel of countries over the period 1970–2020. The results shows that both inflation and real GDP growth respond …What is the impact of climate change on inflation and growth dynamics? This is not a simple question to answer as … climate-related shocks affect inflation and economic growth also depends on long-run scarring in the economy and the country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354589
hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015683
One of the challenges of financial stability analysis and bank stress testing is how to establish scenarios with meaningful macro-financial linkages, i.e., taking into account spillover effects and other forms of contagion. We come up with an approach to simulate the potential impact of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050679
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057314