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Growth : Now and Forever?
Mauro, Paolo - 2014
show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049804
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Predictive Density Aggregation : A Model for Global GDP Growth
Caselli, Francesca - 2020
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696
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Recognizing the Bias : Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy
Budina, Nina T. - 2016
of debt bias-the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle- that is significantly larger for house price cycles than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999749
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Exploring the Output Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Low Income Countries
Honda, Jiro - 2020
What do we know about the output effects of fiscal policy in low income countries (LICs)? There are very few empirical studies on the subject. This paper fills this gap by estimating the output effects of government spending shocks in LICs. Our analysis-based on the local projection method-finds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831612
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Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession
Mody, Ashoka - 2012
Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110097
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Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98
Spilimbergo, Antonio - 2021
The paper concludes that world copper prices play an important role in short-term fluctuations and probably influence long-term growth of the Chilean economy. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. In a copper price boom, the higher copper price and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321367
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Fat-Tails and Their (Un)Happy Endings : Correlation Bias and its Implications for Systemic Risk and Prudential Regulation
Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - 2011
The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim … shown that the correlation bias shifts shareholder preferences towards highly correlated assets. For financial institutions …, the correlation bias makes them more prone to fail and raises the level of systemic risk given their interconnectedness …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128782
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Curbing Corporate Debt Bias
De Mooij, Ruud A. - 2017
Tax provisions favoring corporate debt over equity finance ('debt bias') are widely recognized as a risk to financial … borrowing (the majority of today's rules) have no significant impact on debt bias-which relates to third-party borrowing. Also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960580
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The Political Economy of Fiscal Transparency and Independent Fiscal Councils
Beetsma, Roel M. W. J. - 2018
IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong … electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the … bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers' competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924261
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Optimism Bias in Growth Forecasts-The Role of Planned Policy Adjustments
Ismail, Kareem; Perrelli, Roberto; Yang, Jessie - 2021
Are IMF growth forecasts systematically optimistic? And if so, what is the role of planned policy adjustments on this outcome? Are program forecasts as biased as surveillance forecasts? We try to answer these questions using a comprehensive database on IMF forecasts of economic growth in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252053