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countries/regions over the period 1979-2011Q2, to discriminate - between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to …-consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic …-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098275
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses … explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027665
. This flight from quality was triggered by a fall in aggregate demand, was more acute when households could substitute …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996075
presence of increased international liquidity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101069
This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102206
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085134
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780429
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858386
-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858950
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057314