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inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent … theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation does systematically improve out … Volcker and Greenspan eras. However, the contribution of money to inflation forecasting accuracy is quantitatively limited and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772212
In a SVAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or mildly positive. It significantly falls only if narrowly defined as the ratio between new-house and nondurables prices. These findings are rationalized via the estimation of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929918
of increasing inflation; and the “golden years,” when central banks succeeded in preserving price stability in an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024433
We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based …, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It … took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014244524
Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858391
This paper shows that high energy subsidies and low public social spending can emerge as an equilibrium outcome of a political game between the elite and the middle-class when the provision of public goods is subject to bottlenecks, reflecting weak domestic institutions. We test this and other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021781
Would better state institutions increase tax collection, or would higher tax collection help improve state institutions? In the absence of conclusive guidance from theory, this paper searches for an empirical answer to this question, using a panel dataset covering 110 non-resource-rich countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863974
This paper documents developments in mortgage credit and the housing sector in Latin America over the past decade, and compares them with those of other emerging economies. In particular, it examines the real estate and mortgage markets to assess whether (i) growth in mortgage credit is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098616
An increasing number of countries - including in Latin America - are reforming their financial stability frameworks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, in order to establish a stronger macroprudential policy function. This paper analyzes existing arrangements for financial stability in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098622
-fledged inflation targeting regimes in place or have recently adopted them, using an array of methodologies commonly used in the … that the interest rate gap can be a good predictor of future inflation dynamics and economic growth. In addition, looking …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013099302