The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI), which aimed at addressing the information needs that were revealed by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, concluded its first phase and started a second phase (DGI-2) with the endorsement of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in September...

We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and...

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows inflation is negatively correlated with long-run income growth but positively...

We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diversesample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novelinsights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflationtargeting regimes and...

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified...

Anchoring of inflation expectations is of paramount importance for central banks' ability to deliver stable inflation and minimize price dispersion. Relying on daily interest rates and inflation forecasts from major financial institutions in the United States, we calculate monetary policy...

This paper examines whether high government debt levels pose a challenge to containing inflation. It does so by assessing the impact of government debt surprises on inflation expectations in advanced- and emerging market economies. It finds that debt surprises raise long-term inflation...

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protractedperiod of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened theiranchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expandsexisting results in...

This paper documents five facts about inflation expectations in the euro area. First, individual inflation forecasts overreact to individual news. Second, the cross-section average of individual forecasts of inflation underreact to shocks initially, but overreacts in the medium term. Third,...

The ECB has taken a range of actions to address bank funding problems, eliminate excessive risk in sovereign markets, and safeguard monetary transmission. But euro area financial markets have remained fragmented, driving retail interest rates in stressed markets far above those in the core. This...