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This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012768153
We present an extensive analysis of the consequences for global equilibrium determinacy in flexible-price open economies of implementing active interest rate rules, i.e., monetary rules where the nominal interest rate responds more than proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102282
found for Brazil. More surprisingly, they are smaller than South Africa's, the continent's sole long-term inflation targeter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998791
Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and 'learned' anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A 'Taylor rule' is predicated upon two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889157
This paper investigates optimized monetary policy rules in the presence of government intervention to stabilize prices of certain categories of goods and services. The paper estimates a small-scale, structural equilibrium model with a sticky-price sector and a subsidized price sector for a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037251
This paper empirically evaluates the operational performance of the McCallum rule, the Taylor rule and hybrid rules in India over the period 1996-2011 using quarterly data, with a view to analytically informing the conduct of monetary policy. The results show that forward-looking formulations of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102281
we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051598
This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well … Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can … savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108621
Given their pegged exchange rate regimes, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries usually adjust their policy rates to match shifting U.S. monetary policy. This raises the important question of how changes in U.S. monetary policy affect banks in the GCC. We use bank-level panel data, exploiting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843506
Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889159