-consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic …

austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically … significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal … times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously …

, however, appears very modest and not evident during the 2008 food price shock. The evidence suggests that trade openness …

neutral technology shock compare in a marginal likelihood race. To that end we construct and estimate several competing small … different hypotheses that generate the empirically observed decline in worked hours after a positive technology shock. These …

of a monetary shock in that sector, unlike in the nondurable goods sector for which households cannot manufacture … real macroeconomic variables to a monetary shock. Some empirical support for this theory is provided …