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lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a … panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings … precautionary savings motive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110097
We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store … investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent shocks … leads to low precautionary saving and high or low investment, depending on the volatility of temporary shocks. Empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102269
This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895118
reallocated from the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions even further. To account for …. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productive investment. The model shows that these purchases reduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059093
interest rate - thus helping to foster investment and growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777952
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012858960
Does the distribution of income within a country become more equal as it grows richer? This paper uses plausibly exogenous variations in trade-weighted world income and international oil price shocks as instruments for within-country variations in countries' real GDP per capita to examine this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050681
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829696
This paper uses panel data for 19 OECD countries and finds support for the hypothesis that a greater degree of product variety relative to the United States helps to explain relative per capita GDP levels. The empirical work relies upon some direct measures of product variety calculated from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317978
This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082217