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An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780429

Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters

Bluedorn, John C. - 2018

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912501

Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models

Xie, Jing - 2023

Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256593

News-Based Sentiment Indicators

Huang, Chengyu - 2020

We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843513

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

An, Zidong - 2019

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864122

Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions : A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons

Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca A.; Werner, Alejandro M. - 2022

This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855

A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)

Barhoumi, Karim - 2015

This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric … approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor's benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in … tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027639

Big Data on Vessel Traffic : Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Arslanalp, Serkan - 2020

Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843510

Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan

Sekine, Toshitaka - 2006

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup relationships, excess money and the output gap are particularly relevant long-run determinants for an equilibrium correction model (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782834

Forecasting Thailand's Core Inflation

sun, tao - 2006

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783174

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