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Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines : Lessons for the Green Transition
Bems, Rudolfs; Boehnert, Lukas; Pescatori, Andreas; … - 2023
Limiting climate change requires a 80 percent reduction in fossil fuel extraction until 2050. What are the macroeconomic consequences for fossil fuel producing countries? We identify 35 episodes of persistent, exogenous declines in extraction based on a new data-set for 13 minerals (oil, gas,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350439
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Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria : Low But Still Relevant
Muir, Dirk - 2013
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085612
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Global House Price Fluctuations : Synchronization and Determinants
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086308
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Revisiting the Link between Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility
Dabla-Norris, Era - 2013
This paper examines the impact of financial depth on macroeconomic volatility using a dynamic panel analysis for 110 advanced and developing countries. We find that financial depth plays a significant role in dampening the volatility of output, consumption, and investment growth, but only up to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086316
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086323
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The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
Cashin, Paul Anthony - 2013
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088734
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Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?
Bluedorn, John C. - 2013
price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal … effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood of a new recession can be substantial. Equity price drops are, however …, larger and are more frequent than house price drops, making them on average more helpful as recession predictors. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073778
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Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area : Love at Second Sight?
Andrle, Michal - 2013
This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074695
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Output and Inflation Co-Movement : An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts
Andrle, Michal - 2017
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? Bydocumenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cyclein a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations aredriven by one major factor. The positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962163
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The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle : Some New Empirical Regularities
Saboin, Jose - 2019
Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this paper contribute to the literature of modern hyperinflations in that these cycles...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895119