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In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of thepost-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate astylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during“normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061162
The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean … countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth … to major sources of labor market determinants, in the long and short run. The main determinants of employment include …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049805
decline given population aging. This paper's measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and … employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023273
In the last two decades, manufacturing industries in Korea have become more concentrated, and interconnectedness across industries and to foreign countries has risen via vertical relationships and trade linkages. This paper investigates the transmission of economic shocks in such a highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868263
larger positive GDP growth comovement, while higher import linkages lead to higher negative employment growth comovement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868264
professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly …, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in …-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868467
This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007-08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869286
This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782385
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783040
The paper analyzes the relationship between large-scale capital inflows and sterilization efforts in the Czech Republic during 1993-96 using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, which consists of domestic credit, foreign reserves, and domestic and foreign interest rates. The analysis finds that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783067