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Where Should We Go? Internet Searches and Tourist Arrivals
Cevik, Serhan - 2020
improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840606
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Italy : Quantifying the Benefits of a Comprehensive Reform Package
Andrle, Michal - 2018
This paper seeks to quantify the net benefits of a comprehensive reform package aimedat addressing Italy's inter-related challenges. Specifically, it simulates the growth andcompetitiveness effects of a package of fiscal, financial, wage bargaining, and otherstructural reforms. Credible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012922623
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The Lack of Convergence of Latin-America Compared with Cesee : Is Low Investment to Blame?
Bakker, Bas Berend - 2020
In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828058
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Unemployment Surges in the EU : The Role of Risk Premium Shocks
Bakker, Bas Berend - 2019
In the last decade, over half of the EU countries in the euro area or with currenciespegged to the euro were hit by large risk premium shocks. Previous papers havefocused on the impact of these shocks on demand. This paper, by contrast, focuses onthe impact on supply. We show that risk premium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889134
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Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-Side Framework : The Case of Argentina
Lusinyan, Lusine - 2018
The paper uses a supply-side framework based on a production function approach to assess the role of structural reforms in boosting long-term GDP growth in Argentina. The impact of product, labor, trade, and tax reforms on each supply-side channel-capital accumulation, labor utilization, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912483
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Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances : Some Conventional Views Reconsidered
Meredith, Guy - 2007
We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777932
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An Alternative Proof of Minimum Trace Reconciliation
Ando, Sakai; Narita, Futoshi - 2022
Minimum trace reconciliation, developed by Wickramasuriya et. al. (2019), is an innovation in the literature of forecast reconciliation. The proof, however, is indirect and not easy to extend to more general situations. This paper provides an alternative proof based on the first-order condition...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014079899
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Systematizing Macroframework Forecasting : High-Dimensional Conditional Forecasting with Accounting Identities
Ando, Sakai; Kim, Taehoon - 2022
Forecasting a macroframework, which consists of many macroeconomic variables and accounting identities, is widely … conducted in the policy arena to present an economic narrative and check its consistency. Such forecasting, however, is …. This paper proposes a method to systematically forecast macroframework by integrating (1) conditional forecasting with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014082216
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms the Case of Italy
Lusinyan, Lusine - 2013
Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive package...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086322
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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
into this search by providing two metrics-inflation forecasting and business cycle dating-against which different options …) inefficiency wedge performs best in inflation forecasting and production function methodology dominates in the prediction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944