Showing 1 - 10 of 223
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781020
This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty … the unemployment rate-varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085991
Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curveindicates increased labor mismatch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074692
relatively minor intervention can dramatically increase the fragility of jobs, the length of unemployment spells, as well as the … extent of unemployment and labor market churning. With institutions of the type studied here common across many different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783081
education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market … policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching significantly more difficult …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977727
In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of thepost-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate astylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during“normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061162
While unemployment rates in Europe declined after the global financial crisis until 2018/19, the incidence of long …-term unemployment, the share of people who have been unemployed for more than one year to the total unemployed, remained high. Moreover …, the COVID-19 pandemic could aggravate the long-term unemployment. This paper explores factors associated with long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315122
The paper uses a large survey (GSOEP) to analyze the labor market performance of immigrants in Germany. It finds that new immigrant workers earn on average 20 percent less than native workers with otherwise identical characteristics. The gap is smaller for immigrants from advanced countries,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996034
unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The theory of hysteresis challenges this … strong empirical evidence of unemployment hysteresis in advanced economies since the 1990s. Relying on an identification … unemployment rates to pre-shock levels …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912496
Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U …-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We … use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081630