We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

Keller (1998) reexamines Coe and Helpman`s (1995) analysis of international R&D spillovers focusing on the weights used to define the foreign R&D capital stock. Keller creates random weights and shows that they give rise to positive estimates of international R&D spillovers, casting doubts on...

We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the trade off between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of...

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity...

We examine the extent to which declining manufacturing employment may havecontributed to increasing inequality in advanced economies. This contribution is typicallysmall, except in the United States. We explore two possible explanations: the high initialmanufacturing wage premium and the high...

The analysis of interconnectedness and contagion is an important part of the financial stability and risk assessment of a country's financial system. This paper offers detailed and practical guidance on how to conduct a comprehensive analysis of interconnectedness and contagion for a country's...

Mauritius's economic performance has been called 'the Mauritian miracle' and the 'success of Africa' (Romer, 1992; Frankel, 2010; Stiglitz, 2011), despite difficult initial conditions that led a Nobel Prize Winner in economics to predict stagnation (Meade, 1961). We use growth accounting to analyze the...

We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the unemployment rate as labor demand outpaced an increasing labor supply. We emphasize the role of informality...

The short answer: The size of the Russian State has not increased much in the last few years, but its economic footprint remains significant. Concretely, the state's size increased from about 32 percent of GDP in 2012 to 33 percent in 2016, not far from the EBRD's estimate of 35 percent for...

While South Africa has made significant improvements in basic and tertiary education enrollment, the country still suffers from significant challenges in the quality of educational achievement by almost any international metric. The paper finds that money is clearly not the main issue since the...