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improve the precision of macroeconomic forecasting, especially in areas with data constraints. This paper investigates whether … travel-related online search queries enhance accuracy in the forecasting of tourist arrivals to The Bahamas from the U.S. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840606
obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782834
This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the … combining a short-term model, which attempts to distill the forecasting power of a variety of monthly indicators purely on …-run structural determinants. The result is a promising model for forecasting Thai core inflation over horizons up to 10, 24, and 55 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783174
factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977854
Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011192
results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860993
We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve's May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046304
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080457
The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expectations, price level targeting emerges as the optimal policy under myopia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864097
The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083501