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This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843312
While the unemployment rate in the Baltics has fallen sharply from its crisis-peaks, it remains close to double digits …. Our main findings are that the current still elevated levels of unemployment mostly reflect structural factors. We then … turn to why structural unemployment is so high. This paper points to skill mismatches, high tax wedges, and unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047968
with distortionary taxation and unemployment. We argue that the simultaneous reduction in the fiscal deficit and … unemployment rate in this episode stems from two factors: (i) high growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP), experienced … TFP boosted net exports and led to a reduction in the unemployment rate. A counterfactual simulation assuming stagnant TFP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998777
The paper examines the employment and unemployment implications of permitting unemployed people to use part of their … unemployment benefits to provide employment vouchers to the firms that hire them. This opportunity to transfer unemployment … benefits into employment subsidies--quot;benefit transfersquot; for short--would help replace the unemployment trap by an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012781941
relatively minor intervention can dramatically increase the fragility of jobs, the length of unemployment spells, as well as the … extent of unemployment and labor market churning. With institutions of the type studied here common across many different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783081
may have increased unemployment. It is shown that it is likely to be so if they are associated with an increase in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012774285
Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data we construct a historical monthly unemployment series for U …-level unemployment data, which are only available from January 1976 onwards, and capture consistent patterns in the business cycle. We … use our claims-based unemployment series to examine the evolving pace of post-war unemployment recoveries at the state …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081630
Despite its low unemployment rate, the recent shift in the Japanese Beveridge curveindicates increased labor mismatch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013074692
The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well …-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and … economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306725
We analyze the differential impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Spanish labor market across population groups, as well as its implications for income inequality. The main finding is that young, less educated, and low skilled workers, as well as women are the most affected by the COVID-19 shock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295139