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are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue, we estimate an open …-economy, New Keynsian Phillips curve, in which we control for imported inflation. Regression results suggest that falling food and … energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. But low core inflation in the euro area has also had a clear and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013043711
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051913
unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002151
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023270
-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including … the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good … Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025502
Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief … create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible … the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012828228
Low-income economies face negative shocks whose frequency and disproportionate impact overcome growth trajectories, producing a negative drift. COVID-19 was the latest such episode. To escape this negative drift, and build a durable recovery, there is a need for a counter-balancing force: to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352622
agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960572
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a … target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012960575
The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049145