revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages …

the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent …

-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated … using standard mutivariate forecast accuracy measures. In fact, simple univariate Box-Jenkins forecasts are just as accurate …

nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are … larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest … average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for …