Showing 1 - 10 of 295
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013023270
This paper discusses the challenging question of whether central banks should use treasury bills or central bank bills for draining excess liquidity in the banking system. While recognizing that there are practical reasons for using central bank bills, the paper argues that treasury bills are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110099
This paper examines the origins and use of the concept of Gross National Happiness (or subjective well-being) in the Kingdom of Bhutan, and the relationship between measured well-being and macroeconomic indicators. While there are only a few national surveys of Gross National Happiness in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892900
problem as insufficient demand, when it is actually a supply problem. We do this in a real model, in which inflation is not an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859859
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051913
Although central banks have recently taken unconventional policy actions to try to shore up macroeconomic and financial stability, little theory is available to assess the consequences of such measures. This paper offers a theoretical model with which such policies can be analyzed. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111404
This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the … pressures, including a gap could improve the accuracy of autoregressive inflation forecasting. This assertion is tested in a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783143
What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? Bydocumenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cyclein a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations aredriven by one major factor. The positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962163
While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment … domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines … the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110102
impact on unemployment in the short term, but that this effect rapidly disappears in the medium term in countries with … with more rigid labor market institutions. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term and long …-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive labor market policies have a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108620