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What is the impact of economic spillovers from China on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? This is an increasingly important question because of China's growing economic role as a partner of SSA countries for both trade and the buildup of infrastructure in the region. The impact of spillovers from China...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013012435
The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024429
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910359
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889156
accountability. We show that a flexible inflation targeting approach that places weight on stabilizing inflation, a measure of … the effects of financial frictions can be ameliorated at little cost in terms of inflation. A range of different financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252039
context, the modelshows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectivesaccompanied by a well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829281
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051913
This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317715
The perception that inflation dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are driven by supply shocks implies a limited role … for monetary policy in influencing inflation in the short run. SSA's rapid growth, its integration with the global economy …, changes in the policy frameworks, among others, in the last decade suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015595
Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protractedperiod of low (and below …-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened theiranchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news …. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intradayfrequency regressions to add …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892921