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We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms' accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843303
. We then investigate whether this effect is influenced by two key bank characteristics: securitization and bank capital … competition at the industry level lead to higher realized systemic risk. The results suggest that the use of securitization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865123
securitization activity on loans' relative credit quality employing a uniquely detailed dataset from the euro-denominated syndicated … securitization, however, the credit quality of borrowers whose loans are securitized deteriorates by more than those in the control …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012966551
sheets to non-banks via increased securitization activity. As such, higher interest rates have the potential for unintended … sectors. In the past, this increased securitization activity was driven primarily byb private-label securitization. On the … cutting back on their securitization activity but expanding loans to the Federal Home Loan Bank system …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982433
This paper examines the financial stability implications arising from securitization markets, with one eye on the past … industry developments in the years before the crisis. Emphasis is placed on the various ways in which securitization markets … securitization markets are then discussed, including a treatment of various regulatory initiatives, the operational infrastructure of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060543
This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257254
Imposing cointegration on a forecasting system, if cointegration is present, is believed to improve long-horizon forecasts. Contrary to this belief, at long horizons nothing is lost by ignoring cointegration when the forecasts are evaluated using standard mutivariate forecast accuracy measures....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012735758
We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999741
We apply the fundamentals equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) approach and the Johansen cointegration methodology to investigate the behavior of the real effective exchange rates of the two monetary unions of the CFA franc zone (CEMAC and WAEMU) vis-agrave;-vis their long-run equilibrium paths. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779100
In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka's potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow potential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055678