This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge...

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?...

We discuss regional disparities in economic performance and living standards. We first set out some key facts, and provide a conceptual framework to help analyze whether such disparities are efficient, or instead reflect market and/or policy failures. We examine whether policy attempts to reduce...

We may be on the cusp of a 'second industrial revolution' based on advances in artificialintelligence and robotics. We analyze the implications for inequality and output, usinga model with two assumptions: 'robot' capital is distinct from traditional capital in itsdegree of substitutability with...

Existing studies on the downward trend in the labor share of income mostly focus on changeswithin individual countries. I document, however, that half of the global decline in the laborshare of income can be traced to the relocation of activities between countries. I develop atwo-country model...

We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r∗) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality,...

We provide an overview of the theories and empricial evidence on the complex relationship among innovation, competition, and inclusive growth. Competition and innovation-led growth are critical to drive productivity gains and support broad-based growth. However, new technologies and trends in...

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs' business cycle model where...

The paper examines Senegal's growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducingand distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help makegrowth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades,but poverty reduction has slowed...

Spain's structural reforms, implemented around 2012, have arguably contributed to a faster and stronger economic recovery. In particular, there is strong evidence that the 2012 labor market reforms increased wage flexibility, which helped the Spanish economy to regain competitiveness and create...