using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index-which proxies the windfall gains … average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of … commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates …

trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an … additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going …

findings of this paper suggest a possible link between the recent global productivity slowdown and the global trade slowdown …

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic … slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall … weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine … machine-learning algorithms, confirming the linear relationship between trade and its financing through letters of credit …

model to estimate non-tariff barriers and quantify the impact of services liberalization. The major component of trade … the Euro Area. The paper presents a precise quantitative evaluation of services trade barriers as the difference between …

Based on an empirical gravity model of sectoral bilateral trade, we uncover three features of bilateral trade balances … unobservable bilateral trade costs. Second, the model fit improves drastically when we focus on changes over time of the balances …. Third, using a log linear approximation we show that changes in bilateral trade balances over the past two decades were …

: (1) the balance sheet channel; (2) the financial channel of the exchange rate; and (3) the trade channel. For this … higher export dependence (trade channel). Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the balance sheet channel is the …